![]() ![]() These submarines may not match the latest technical standards set by the U.S., Britain, France, and Russia, but they do offer an impressive level of capability – one that is slowly being increased as each successive design modification is applied.įorecast International’s Warships Forecast covers the key submarine, aircraft carrier, surface combatant, amphibious warfare, and underway replenishment programs that will dominate the warship industry over the next decade and beyond. Forecast International’s forecast of SSBN construction is based on this assessment.Īll this confusion aside, one thing that cannot be ignored is that the People’s Republic of China reportedly has an estimated 16 nuclear-powered submarines in service, with more under construction. ![]() Two separate flotillas of SSBNs, one oriented east and the other southwest, would be logical, suggesting that a fleet of 10 modern SSBNs may well be envisioned. In retrospect, this expectation reflected a narrow vision of Chinese strategic interests and did not allow for the fact that those interests include many potential targets other than the United States. The appearance of four in-service SSBNs in the Southern Fleet came as a surprise, since conventional wisdom had suggested the nuclear-powered boats would be concentrated in the Northern Fleet. The only association between the shipyard and submarines appears to be an unofficial Chinese blog that added the words “and nuclear submarines” to a company-supplied photograph of the new facility. It is almost universally described as a nuclear submarine construction facility, but the reality is that the new hulls are oriented toward merchant ship construction and the first ships to leave the shipyard were an offshore oil platform and a nuclear offshore power barge. The expansion of Bohai Shipyard in Huludao provides a good example of the problems inherent in interpreting Chinese information. Thus, the usual tests that can be applied to unconfirmed information are less effective when applied to People’s Republic of China naval programs. This carries over into official reports, where concepts or developments are stated without indication as to whether the reports in question are just repetitions of unofficial media, speculation, or simply quotations from sources that are not yet available to the public. The big problem is that little distinction is made between observed evidence and suppositions. Often, guesswork and theories or hypotheses are quoted as fact, without the tenuous basis behind them being made clear. The lack of valid and verified information is a vivid reminder that the construction of Chinese nuclear submarines is shrouded in mystery. ![]() The nuclear submarine program of China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is fraught with contradictory information, speculation, and propaganda. Russia has also announced plans to expand its fleet of nuclear submarines, with two more expected to enter service by the end of this year.Chinese Project 094 Jin Class Nuclear-Powered Ballistic Missile Submarine (SSBN) Armed with JL-2 Ballistic Missiles. Stockpiles are also monitored by several methods other than the inspections allowed under New Start, said Dr Podvig, suggesting that Dr Luzin’s figures and theory on why Russia left the treaty are mistaken. With each nuclear submarine said to be capable of carrying 16 ballistic missiles, Dr Luzin assessed that if five submarines are out of service then Moscow possesses 80 fewer missiles than claimed – a significant reduction in its sea-based capabilities.īut other nuclear researchers disagreed with these conclusions.ĭr Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher on weapons of mass destruction at the UN, agreed that Russia’s submarine fleet “is not in good shape” and “quite a few subs may be out of service”, but said this did not mean that Russia’s nuclear arsenal had been weakened.įigures for nuclear missiles collected by inspectors were not calculated through the number of subs, but from seeing “the actual number of missiles installed in tubes”, he told i. ![]()
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